JOURNAL OF THE BALKAN GEOPHYSICAL SOCIETY, Vol. 1, No 2, May 1998, p. 19-26, 4 figs.

Seismic hazard for some regions of the world

examined using strain energy release


Theodoros M. Tsapanos

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Geophysical Laboratory, 54006 Thessaloniki, Macedonia, Grecee

( Received 15 December 1997; accepted 29 April 1998 )

Abstract: The strain energy release technique is used in this work to evaluate the seismic hazard for eleven regions of the world (some regions of Eurasian belt, as well as Japan and California). The representative parameters applied for this evaluation are related to the physical release process of the strain energy. These parameters are the magnitude, M2, which is equivalent to the mean annual total strain energy release and the magnitude, M3, which is analogous to the maximum strain energy, which may be accumulated and released in a region. Empirical relation between M3 and M2 is obtained and the result shows that it has a world-wide validity. The quantity DT, showing the time difference (in years) between the upper bound line (in the energy-time diagrams) and the time since the last seismic activity (strain energy accumulation) is suggested here. An effort is made to forecast the approximate time of the next earthquake occurrence with magnitude less or equal to the maximum strain energy. Finally, a table is given with the regions (cells) ranked according to the M2 parameter.

Key Words: Strain Energy Release, M2, M3, DT, Eurasian Belt.