Investigation of seismic
hazard in Cankiri, Turkey, using Gumbelís
first asymptotic distribution of extreme values
*University of Ankara, Engineering
Faculty, Department of the Geophysical Engineering,
Abstract: Cankiri, Turkey, is located between 40.300and 41.000N
latitudes and between 32.500 and 34.500E longitudes. It
is tectonically active because of the North Anatolian Fault to the North of it.
In this paper, Gumbel I distribution model and the earthquakes with magnitude
(Mb) greater than 4 that occurred between 1964 and 2002 were used to calculate
the earthquake hazard that may happen in the study area. The probability of
occurrence of Mb6.0 earthquake within 100 years and the return period were
calculated to be 95% and 32 years, respectively.
Key words: The North Anatolian Fault,
Gumbel I distribution, Earthquake hazard.