Investigation of seismic hazard in Cankiri, Turkey, using Gumbel’s first asymptotic distribution of extreme values

Funda Bilim

*University of Ankara, Engineering Faculty, Department of the Geophysical Engineering,

Besevler 06100 Ankara, Turkey.

Abstract: Cankiri, Turkey, is located between 40.30⁰and 41.00⁰N latitudes and between 32.50⁰ and 34.50⁰E longitudes. It is tectonically active because of the North Anatolian Fault to the North of it. In this paper, Gumbel I distribution model and the earthquakes with magnitude (Mb) greater than 4 that occurred between 1964 and 2002 were used to calculate the earthquake hazard that may happen in the study area. The probability of occurrence of Mb6.0 earthquake within 100 years and the return period were calculated to be 95% and 32 years, respectively.

Key words: The North Anatolian Fault, Gumbel I distribution, Earthquake hazard.