Seismic Hazard and Seismic Risk Analysis in Turkey Deduced from
T.M. Tsapanos, G-A. Leventakis, G.Ch. Koravos, G.A. Tatsiopoulos and I.Ch. Sertaridou
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, School of Geology, Geoophysical Laboratory, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece.
Abstract:A probabilistic approach is applied to assess the seismic hazard in Turkey. This methodology allows the use of either historical or instrumental data or a combination of both. It has been developed specifically for the estimation of seismic hazard in a specified area or in a specified site and has the advantage that does not require any specification of seismic zones. A relation for the attenuation of peak ground acceleration of shallow seismicity in Turkey was employed. The area was divided in grid of 0.250 x 0 250 and the seismic hazard map constructed for Turkey specifies a 10% probability of exceedance of a given peak ground acceleration (PGA) values for an exposure of 50 years. The map corresponds well with the tectonic features (North and East Anatolian Fault) of the examined area where the largest values are estimated. Moreover an effort is made to evaluate the seismic risk in Turkey considering the information provided by the seismological institutes of the country. Such information concerns the damages caused by large earthquakes (M>5.5) during the 20th century on the buildings, as well as the human victims. It is observed that the most murderous earthquakes was the one of 1939 in Erzincan with magnitude M=7.9 caused about 33.000 deaths and the second was the well-known event of 1999 in Izmit with magnitude M=7.4 caused more than 15.000 deaths.